Volume 2, Issue 4, July 2017, Page: 96-109
Economic Modelling and Forecasting of Sugar Production and Consumption in Egypt
Bader Esam A., Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Damietta University, Damietta, Egypt
Received: Apr. 12, 2017;       Accepted: Apr. 27, 2017;       Published: Jun. 19, 2017
DOI: 10.11648/j.ijae.20170204.12      View  2043      Downloads  171
Abstract
Sugar is considered one of the strategic commodities in Egypt. The domestic production of sugar is still insufficient to meet the consumption needs, which increases the food gap of sugar. This paper analyses the main features of the production and consumption of sugar in Egypt. Descriptive and quantitative analysis are used relying on data obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation for the period (2000-2015). Results indicate that the total sugar production and consumption in Egypt are increased with an annual significant growth rate of 4.08% and 3.26%, respectively. Water productivity for sugar beet is more than sugar cane, with a net return per unit of water of 684.40 and 474.19 LE/1000M3, respectively. The average monthly profitability for sugar beet is about 0.16 which is higher than sugar cane (0.11). Nerlove's model shows that producers responsive to net return in cane production, with elasticity of response about 0.02 and to prices and one year lag of area in sugar beet production, with elasticities of response about 0.57 and 0.40, respectively. The most important factors that influence the food gap of sugar are the domestic production, per capita consumption, and population. Finally, the forecast figures base on ARIMA models show that sugar production and consumption are predicted to increase over the forthcoming decades, and in spite of these, the food gap of sugar would be about 735.43 thousand tons with self-sufficiency rate of 76.26% for the year 2025. For this reason, Egypt should exert more efforts to increase sugar production by increasing beet area, raising the delivery prices, adopting high yielding varieties of sugar crops and rationalizing per capita sugar consumption to reduce the size of sugar gap.
Keywords
Egypt, Food Gap of Sugar, Sugar Crops, Supply Response, ARIMA
To cite this article
Bader Esam A., Economic Modelling and Forecasting of Sugar Production and Consumption in Egypt, International Journal of Agricultural Economics. Vol. 2, No. 4, 2017, pp. 96-109. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20170204.12
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Reference
[1]
Belete, A. (1995) Econometric Analysis of Supply Response among Summer Wheat Growers in Lesotho. UNISWA Journal of Agriculture Vol.4, 73-80.
[2]
CAPMAS. Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, Annual Bulletin for Consumption of Food Commodities, Various Issues, Cairo, Egypt.
[3]
CAPMAS: Statistical Year Book, Various Issues, Cairo, Egypt.
[4]
FAO. www.faostst.org. FAOSTAT Database, Different Years.
[5]
Gujarti, N. D. (1995) Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 2nd Edition, Singapore.
[6]
Hossain, Kazi Abrar (2015) Impact of Ramadan on Global Raw Sugar Prices, East West University, MSC thesis.
[7]
Leaver, R. (2003) Measuring the Supply Response Function of Tobacco in Zimbabwe Aggreko, Vol 43,113-129.
[8]
MALR, Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Council of Sugary Crops Annual Report, Egypt, Various Issues.
[9]
MALR: Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Economic Affairs Sector, General Administration for Statistics, Agricultural Economic Bulletin, Egypt, Various Issues.
[10]
Mythili G. (2008) Acreage and Yield Response for Major Crops in the Pre-and Post-Reform Periods in india: A Dynamic Panal Data Approach, Report prepared for IGIDR-ERS/USDA Project: Agricultural Markets and Policy. Mumbai, India.
[11]
Suresh, K. K., and Priya, S. R. K. (2011) Forecasting Sugarcane Yield of Tamil Nadu Using ARIMA Models. Sugar Technology, 13 (1), 23-26.
[12]
Wasim P. M. (2005) Milk Production Response in Pakistan. The Lahore Journal of Economics Vol.10 (1), 105-121.
Browse journals by subject