Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy

Daniel Hailu; Rozina Gidey

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13

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Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy

Daniel Hailu, Rozina Gidey

Published in International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 7, Issue 5)

Received: 19 August 2022 Accepted: 15 September 2022 Published: 29 September 2022

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Abstract

This paper presents the analysis of yield and yield gaps of cereal crops in Ethiopia. The result indicates that cereal acreage recorded an annual growth rate of 30.4 percent from 2006/07 to 2020/21. In the 2020/21s, growth in cereal production enhanced to about 159.9 percent as compared to the base year 2006/07. Growth in area cultivated has been the principal source of current production increases in most studied crops, except for rice and oats. The production increase can be attributed to 65.5 percent increase in area cultivated and a 34.5 percent increase in crop yield. The average cereal yield level is very low (2.1 tons/ha) as compared to that of the estimated average potential (3.2 tons/ha) in the country for the studied crops. In 2021, the gap between farmers’ yield (25.3, 30.5, 41.8, 26.9, 19.7 and 31.5 qt/ha) and released cultivars potential yield were (31.2, 35.2, 61.1, 36.9, 32.9 and 37.2 qt/ha) for barley, wheat, maize, sorghum, oats, and rice in the country, respectively. The gap analysis is promising and if farmers had closed Yg for studied crops in the same order, Ethiopia could have the potential grain surplus by a respective of 0.6, 4.8.2, 0.02, 0.05, 1.6 and 0.9 million Mt, without expanding cropland area. The empirical analysis based on the Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) model result, if cultivated area and yield of crops is increased by 1 percent then the production growth will be increased by 0.999 percent and by 0.995 percent in the long run respectively. If improvement in breeding can be sustained at existing levels, various yield gaps even appear to increase over time. This means that exploitable yield gaps remain large, which is thought necessary to uphold growth in average farm yields.

Published in	International Journal of Agricultural Economics (Volume 7, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13
Page(s)	222-226
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Cereals, Potential Yields, Actual Yields, Yield Gaps, Grain Production, Ethiopia

References

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[2]	Montgomery DR 2007. Dirt: the erosion of civilization. University of California Press, USA, p 296. ISBN 13: 978-0-520-25806-8.
[3]	United Nations, The 2030 Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals: An opportunity for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/G.2681-P/Rev.3), Santiago, 2018.
[4]	van Ittersum, M. K., van Bussel, L. G. J., Wolf, J., Grassini, P., van Wart, J., Guilpart, N., 2016. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci 113, 14964–14969.
[5]	USAID 2020. Agriculture and food security. Ethiopia_Fact-Sheet_Ag-Food-Security_Oct-2020.
[6]	CSA (Central Statistical Agency). 2021. Agricultural Sample Survey. Report on Area and Production of major crops, Meher season. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[7]	Ayele, S., G. Ayele, T. Nigussie and J. Thorpe. 2019. Policy incentives and agribusiness investment in Ethiopia: benefit or deadweight? APRA Brief 20, Future Agricultures Consortium.
[8]	Planning and Development Commission of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (PDC) 2020. Ten Years Development Plan. A pathway to prosperity 2021-2030.
[9]	Hall, A. J., Feoli, C., Ingaramo, J. & Balzarini, M. 2013. Gaps between farmer and attainable yields across rainfed sunflower growing regions of Argentina. Field Crops Res. 143, 119-129.
[10]	CSA (Central Statistical Agency) 2006; 2021. Agricultural sample survey. Report on area and production of major crops (Private peasant holdings, Meher season). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[11]	MoA (Ministry of Agriculture) 2006; 2021. CROP VARIETY REGISTER ISSUE. MoA Plant Variety Release, Protection and Seed Quality Control Directorate. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
[12]	M. Hashem Pesaran, Yongcheol Shin & Ron P. Smith 1999. Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94: 446, 621-634, DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1999.10474156.
[13]	Merga, B., & Haji, J. 2019. Factors impeding effective crop production in Ethiopia. Journal of Agricultural Science 11 (10), 1–14. doi: 10.5539/jas.v11n10p1.
[14]	Getaye Gizaw. Muniu 2020. Factors Affecting Agricultural Productivity in Doba Woreda, Oromia National Regional State, Ethiopia. Int J Econ Manag Sci, 9 doi: 10.37421/ijems.2020.9.577.
[15]	Kihara J, Gurmessa B, Tamene L, Amede T, and Sommer R. 2022. Understanding factors influencing wheat productivity in Ethiopian highlands. Experimental Agriculture. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0014479721000296
[16]	Fischer, T., Byerlee, D., Edmeades, G.O., 2014. Crop Yields and Global Food Security: Will Yield Increase Continue to Feed the World? ACIAR Monograph. Australian centre for international agricultural research, Cranberra.

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APA Style

Daniel Hailu, Rozina Gidey. (2022). Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 7(5), 222-226. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13

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ACS Style

Daniel Hailu; Rozina Gidey. Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2022, 7(5), 222-226. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13

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AMA Style

Daniel Hailu, Rozina Gidey. Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy. Int J Agric Econ. 2022;7(5):222-226. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13,
  author = {Daniel Hailu and Rozina Gidey},
  title = {Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {7},
  number = {5},
  pages = {222-226},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20220705.13},
  abstract = {This paper presents the analysis of yield and yield gaps of cereal crops in Ethiopia. The result indicates that cereal acreage recorded an annual growth rate of 30.4 percent from 2006/07 to 2020/21. In the 2020/21s, growth in cereal production enhanced to about 159.9 percent as compared to the base year 2006/07. Growth in area cultivated has been the principal source of current production increases in most studied crops, except for rice and oats. The production increase can be attributed to 65.5 percent increase in area cultivated and a 34.5 percent increase in crop yield. The average cereal yield level is very low (2.1 tons/ha) as compared to that of the estimated average potential (3.2 tons/ha) in the country for the studied crops. In 2021, the gap between farmers’ yield (25.3, 30.5, 41.8, 26.9, 19.7 and 31.5 qt/ha) and released cultivars potential yield were (31.2, 35.2, 61.1, 36.9, 32.9 and 37.2 qt/ha) for barley, wheat, maize, sorghum, oats, and rice in the country, respectively. The gap analysis is promising and if farmers had closed Yg for studied crops in the same order, Ethiopia could have the potential grain surplus by a respective of 0.6, 4.8.2, 0.02, 0.05, 1.6 and 0.9 million Mt, without expanding cropland area. The empirical analysis based on the Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) model result, if cultivated area and yield of crops is increased by 1 percent then the production growth will be increased by 0.999 percent and by 0.995 percent in the long run respectively. If improvement in breeding can be sustained at existing levels, various yield gaps even appear to increase over time. This means that exploitable yield gaps remain large, which is thought necessary to uphold growth in average farm yields.},
 year = {2022}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy
AU  - Daniel Hailu
AU  - Rozina Gidey
Y1  - 2022/09/29
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 222
EP  - 226
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13
AB  - This paper presents the analysis of yield and yield gaps of cereal crops in Ethiopia. The result indicates that cereal acreage recorded an annual growth rate of 30.4 percent from 2006/07 to 2020/21. In the 2020/21s, growth in cereal production enhanced to about 159.9 percent as compared to the base year 2006/07. Growth in area cultivated has been the principal source of current production increases in most studied crops, except for rice and oats. The production increase can be attributed to 65.5 percent increase in area cultivated and a 34.5 percent increase in crop yield. The average cereal yield level is very low (2.1 tons/ha) as compared to that of the estimated average potential (3.2 tons/ha) in the country for the studied crops. In 2021, the gap between farmers’ yield (25.3, 30.5, 41.8, 26.9, 19.7 and 31.5 qt/ha) and released cultivars potential yield were (31.2, 35.2, 61.1, 36.9, 32.9 and 37.2 qt/ha) for barley, wheat, maize, sorghum, oats, and rice in the country, respectively. The gap analysis is promising and if farmers had closed Yg for studied crops in the same order, Ethiopia could have the potential grain surplus by a respective of 0.6, 4.8.2, 0.02, 0.05, 1.6 and 0.9 million Mt, without expanding cropland area. The empirical analysis based on the Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) model result, if cultivated area and yield of crops is increased by 1 percent then the production growth will be increased by 0.999 percent and by 0.995 percent in the long run respectively. If improvement in breeding can be sustained at existing levels, various yield gaps even appear to increase over time. This means that exploitable yield gaps remain large, which is thought necessary to uphold growth in average farm yields.
VL  - 7
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Daniel Hailu

Department of Agricultural Economics, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Rozina Gidey

Department of Agricultural Economics, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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APA Style

Daniel Hailu, Rozina Gidey. (2022). Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy. International Journal of Agricultural Economics, 7(5), 222-226. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13

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ACS Style

Daniel Hailu; Rozina Gidey. Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy. Int. J. Agric. Econ. 2022, 7(5), 222-226. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13

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AMA Style

Daniel Hailu, Rozina Gidey. Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy. Int J Agric Econ. 2022;7(5):222-226. doi: 10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13

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@article{10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13,
  author = {Daniel Hailu and Rozina Gidey},
  title = {Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy},
  journal = {International Journal of Agricultural Economics},
  volume = {7},
  number = {5},
  pages = {222-226},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijae.20220705.13},
  abstract = {This paper presents the analysis of yield and yield gaps of cereal crops in Ethiopia. The result indicates that cereal acreage recorded an annual growth rate of 30.4 percent from 2006/07 to 2020/21. In the 2020/21s, growth in cereal production enhanced to about 159.9 percent as compared to the base year 2006/07. Growth in area cultivated has been the principal source of current production increases in most studied crops, except for rice and oats. The production increase can be attributed to 65.5 percent increase in area cultivated and a 34.5 percent increase in crop yield. The average cereal yield level is very low (2.1 tons/ha) as compared to that of the estimated average potential (3.2 tons/ha) in the country for the studied crops. In 2021, the gap between farmers’ yield (25.3, 30.5, 41.8, 26.9, 19.7 and 31.5 qt/ha) and released cultivars potential yield were (31.2, 35.2, 61.1, 36.9, 32.9 and 37.2 qt/ha) for barley, wheat, maize, sorghum, oats, and rice in the country, respectively. The gap analysis is promising and if farmers had closed Yg for studied crops in the same order, Ethiopia could have the potential grain surplus by a respective of 0.6, 4.8.2, 0.02, 0.05, 1.6 and 0.9 million Mt, without expanding cropland area. The empirical analysis based on the Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) model result, if cultivated area and yield of crops is increased by 1 percent then the production growth will be increased by 0.999 percent and by 0.995 percent in the long run respectively. If improvement in breeding can be sustained at existing levels, various yield gaps even appear to increase over time. This means that exploitable yield gaps remain large, which is thought necessary to uphold growth in average farm yields.},
 year = {2022}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Yield Trends and Yield Gap Analysis of Cereal Crops in Ethiopia: Implications for Research and Policy
AU  - Daniel Hailu
AU  - Rozina Gidey
Y1  - 2022/09/29
PY  - 2022
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13
T2  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JF  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
JO  - International Journal of Agricultural Economics
SP  - 222
EP  - 226
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2575-3843
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijae.20220705.13
AB  - This paper presents the analysis of yield and yield gaps of cereal crops in Ethiopia. The result indicates that cereal acreage recorded an annual growth rate of 30.4 percent from 2006/07 to 2020/21. In the 2020/21s, growth in cereal production enhanced to about 159.9 percent as compared to the base year 2006/07. Growth in area cultivated has been the principal source of current production increases in most studied crops, except for rice and oats. The production increase can be attributed to 65.5 percent increase in area cultivated and a 34.5 percent increase in crop yield. The average cereal yield level is very low (2.1 tons/ha) as compared to that of the estimated average potential (3.2 tons/ha) in the country for the studied crops. In 2021, the gap between farmers’ yield (25.3, 30.5, 41.8, 26.9, 19.7 and 31.5 qt/ha) and released cultivars potential yield were (31.2, 35.2, 61.1, 36.9, 32.9 and 37.2 qt/ha) for barley, wheat, maize, sorghum, oats, and rice in the country, respectively. The gap analysis is promising and if farmers had closed Yg for studied crops in the same order, Ethiopia could have the potential grain surplus by a respective of 0.6, 4.8.2, 0.02, 0.05, 1.6 and 0.9 million Mt, without expanding cropland area. The empirical analysis based on the Pooled Mean-Group (PMG) model result, if cultivated area and yield of crops is increased by 1 percent then the production growth will be increased by 0.999 percent and by 0.995 percent in the long run respectively. If improvement in breeding can be sustained at existing levels, various yield gaps even appear to increase over time. This means that exploitable yield gaps remain large, which is thought necessary to uphold growth in average farm yields.
VL  - 7
IS  - 5
ER  -

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